Crypto Weekly Outlook (April 20–26, 2026): FOMC Week, Hormuz Reopens, and BTC Breaks Out

This Week in 30 Seconds

BTC: ~$74,500. Up 5% from last Sunday. Breakout above the $70K resistance that held for 7 weeks. First close above $74K since the Iran war started in late February.

ETH: ~$2,280. Up 7% weekly. Finally reclaiming the $2,200 zone. BlackRock IBIT inflows $269M in a single day.

Why now? Iran opened the Strait of Hormuz on April 17. Oil dropped from $115 to $85 in days. Core CPI came in at 2.6%, below expectations. The two things that have held BTC back since February — oil and inflation — are both easing.

Main event this week: FOMC meeting April 28–29. Likely Powell’s last as Chair before Kevin Warsh takes over May 15. 98% probability of a rate hold.

Secondary events: Bitcoin 2026 Conference (Las Vegas, April 27–29), TOKEN2049 Dubai (April 29–30), monthly options expiry Friday April 24.

Demand zone: BTC $70K–$71K. Supply zone: $76K–$78K.

Bias: Cautiously bullish. The macro is genuinely improving but BTC has dropped after 8 of the last 9 FOMC meetings.

Welcome to TradeSteady Crypto's Weekly Outlook #4. Two weeks ago, we called the triple-threat macro week (FOMC minutes + PCE + CPI) with a cautious bias. That call aged well — BTC did drop on FOMC minutes, but the CPI rescue was a surprise, and since then the picture has changed dramatically. This week is about whether the breakout holds through the final FOMC of the Powell era.

Context: The Iran War, 7 Weeks Later

For readers who have not been tracking this closely, here is what happened and why it matters for crypto:

• Feb 28, 2026: US and Israel launched joint strikes on Iran (“Operation Epic Fury”). Iran retaliated with missiles on US bases across the Gulf. BTC dropped from $68K to $63K in hours. Oil spiked above $85/barrel.

• Early March: Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil flows. Crude pushed past $100. Bitcoin fell to $65K range.

• April 7: First ceasefire announcement. BTC jumped 4% that day. Brent dropped to $95.

• April 13: Ceasefire talks briefly faltered. Trump ordered a partial Hormuz blockade. BTC retested $67K.

• April 17: Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz. Oil crashed from $115 to $85.90 in three days. BTC broke above $74K for the first time since February.

The two-month cycle is effectively over, at least for now. What does this mean for crypto going forward? Two things:

Inflation pressure eases: March CPI came in at 3.3% year-over-year, almost entirely driven by the 21% jump in gasoline prices. But core CPI (stripping out food and energy) was just 2.6% — below expectations. With oil now back to $85, the April CPI reading (due May 13) should look much better.

Rate-cut hopes return: CME FedWatch shows markets pricing in one rate cut by year-end for the first time since February. That is a fundamental shift in the liquidity outlook for risk assets like BTC.

Market Snapshot

Metric	BTC	ETH
Price (Apr 20, IST morning)	~$74,500	~$2,280
Last Sunday	$70,900	$2,130
Weekly Change	+5.1%	+7.0%
2026 High	$75,991 (early March)	$2,384 (early March)
2026 Low	$63,000 (Feb 28, war shock)	$1,804 (Feb 28)
ATH	$126,198 (Oct 6, 2025)	$4,953 (Aug 24, 2025)
Key Driver	Hormuz reopening, oil drop, softer core CPI	BlackRock IBIT $269M inflow Thursday

This Week’s Macro Calendar

This is arguably the single most important week of April. Four major events in five days:

Date	Event	Time (IST)	Crypto Impact
Tue, Apr 21	US Consumer Confidence (April)	7:30 PM	Medium. Reading on how consumers feel about prices after CPI spike.
Wed, Apr 22	Ceasefire deadline — Iran agreement expires	—	HIGH. If war resumes, oil spikes again, BTC retests $70K.
Thu, Apr 23	Advance GDP Q1 + Jobless Claims	6:00 PM	Medium. First read on Q1 growth. Recession fears easing.
Fri, Apr 24	Monthly Options Expiry (Delta Exchange + Deribit)	5:30 PM	HIGH for options traders. Positioning into FOMC.
Mon–Wed, Apr 27–29	Bitcoin 2026 Conference (Las Vegas)	—	Medium-HIGH. Major corporate treasury and ETF announcements typically happen here.
Wed, Apr 29	⭐ FOMC Meeting + Powell Presser (likely his last)	11:30 PM	THE week’s headliner. 98% rate hold expected. Powell transition + Warsh confirmation tone = market-moving.
Wed–Thu, Apr 29–30	TOKEN2049 Dubai	—	Medium. Institutional networking event, product announcements.

For a refresher on how FOMC meetings mechanically move Bitcoin, read our earlier analysis: The Nothing FOMC — Why Crypto Went Silent After the Fed. The dynamics have changed since January, but the mechanics remain the same.

The FOMC ‘Sell the News’ Pattern

Data point that every Indian crypto trader should know: BTC has dropped after 8 of the last 9 FOMC meetings, regardless of the decision. This is the classic “sell the news” pattern — traders position aggressively before the event, and when the event finally happens, early buyers take profits.

The one exception in the last nine was October 2025, when the Fed’s surprise dovish pivot fueled the rally to $126K.

What makes this meeting different: It may be Powell’s last. Kevin Warsh has been called “the new gold” Bitcoin advocate and takes over May 15. Any signals about policy transition under new leadership carry outsized weight.

BTC & ETH: Supply and Demand Zones

	Bitcoin (BTC)	Ethereum (ETH)
Current Price	~$74,500	~$2,280
Demand Zone 1	$70,000–$71,500 (previous resistance turned support; breakout retest area)	$2,100–$2,180 (previous resistance; IBIT inflow zone)
Demand Zone 2	$67,000–$68,000 (war-era midrange; major structural floor)	$1,950–$2,000 (psychological floor tested 4 times in March)
Supply Zone 1	$76,000–$78,000 (March high + pre-war resistance cluster)	$2,300–$2,400 (Feb post-ETHB high + trapped longs)
Supply Zone 2	$80,000–$82,000 (psychological + January support-turned-resistance)	$2,500–$2,600 (Q1 2026 open, heavy distribution zone)

BTC context: The breakout above $72K is technically significant because it ended the 7-week range that defined February and March. But BTC is now approaching the $76K–$78K supply zone where sellers defended consistently in early March. Whether it breaks through depends on whether (a) the ceasefire holds and (b) Powell’s FOMC tone is not aggressively hawkish.

ETH context: ETH has finally reclaimed the $2,200 zone after 10 weeks below it. BlackRock’s IBIT alone bought $269M in a single Thursday session last week. If ETF flows continue positive and ETH clears $2,400, the next target is $2,600. However, ETH has not posted a positive monthly close since August 2025, so every rally has faded historically.

Sentiment Snapshot

• Fear & Greed: 43 (Fear — recovering from 11 two weeks ago). This is the fastest sentiment recovery of 2026. Still below neutral (50), which leaves room for upside as retail re-engages.

• Oil (Brent): $85.90/barrel, down from $115 peak. The single most important chart for crypto right now. Every dollar lower in oil = one less basis point of expected inflation.

• Dollar Index (DXY): 99.8, falling from 101 highs in early March. Dollar weakness correlates with BTC strength historically.

• BTC ETF Flows: $1.12 billion inflows Apr 4–10, led by BlackRock IBIT. First sustained positive week since February. Institutional buying is back.

• Coinbase Premium Index: Highest since October 2025. This measures whether US spot buyers are paying a premium over global average. Not short-covering — real spot demand.

• CME FedWatch: 98% probability of rate hold April 29. Markets have priced in one cut by year-end (was zero cuts a month ago).

What TradeSteady Is Watching

The $76K–$78K test is the trade setup. If BTC pushes through this zone before FOMC, it opens a path toward $80K quickly. If it gets rejected and rolls over before Wednesday, the FOMC sell-the-news pattern will likely take BTC back to the $70K–$71K demand zone. Either scenario is tradeable — just know which one you are in.

Ceasefire deadline Wednesday is the real tail risk. The current Iran agreement runs out April 22. If talks collapse and the war resumes, oil retests $100 and everything we said above reverses. Keep size small heading into this date. The geopolitical calendar matters as much as the economic one this week.

Options sellers: this is your week. Implied volatility is elevated heading into FOMC, but the weekly expiry Friday April 24 (pre-FOMC) is pure theta. Selling straddles on Friday’s expiry around $74K with a tight exit plan has historically been profitable in FOMC weeks. On Delta Exchange, size down to half-positions — the risk of a 5%+ move if the ceasefire breaks is real. Read our Monthly Expiry Day Playbook for the full strategy.

Watch the Bitcoin 2026 Conference Wednesday–Thursday. Previous editions have produced material announcements — corporate treasury commitments, protocol upgrades, ETF issuer news. With the conference overlapping FOMC, any positive announcement amplifies the reaction; any negative one compounds selling.

Powell’s tone > the rate decision. The 98% FOMC hold is already priced in. What is not priced in is what Powell says about the Warsh transition, the oil shock’s path through the data, and whether he sees room for cuts in 2026. Hawkish press conference = BTC back to $70K. Dovish or balanced = BTC pushes $78K+ into the Bitcoin Conference tailwind. For context on how inflation data mechanically moves crypto, read: How US CPI Affects Crypto Trading Every Month.

Risk management always: Weeks like this reward disciplined traders and punish over-leveraged ones. Use our Position Size Calculator before every trade, and journal every position in our Futures Trading Journal. This is not the week to risk more than 1% per trade.

FAQ

How does the Iran ceasefire affect Bitcoin?

The ceasefire, combined with Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz on April 17, has dropped oil from $115 to $85. Lower oil means lower inflation expectations, which means lower Fed rates, which means more liquidity for risk assets including BTC. This is why BTC broke $74K for the first time since February. If the ceasefire breaks down after April 22, oil retests $100 and the whole thesis reverses.

Will BTC drop after FOMC on April 29?

Historically yes. BTC has dropped after 8 of the last 9 FOMC meetings regardless of the decision. This is the classic sell-the-news pattern. However, this meeting is different because it may be Powell’s last before Kevin Warsh takes over as Fed Chair on May 15. If Powell or the statement signals openness to rate cuts under new leadership, the pattern could break.

What is the monthly options expiry on April 24?

Monthly crypto options expire on the last Friday of each month on Delta Exchange India and Deribit. With the FOMC meeting four days later, positioning and hedging activity concentrates around this expiry. Options sellers typically capitalise on elevated implied volatility by selling premium.

Is this the start of a new bull run?

Possibly. The confluence of factors — war de-escalation, oil collapse, softer core CPI, ETF inflows returning, and potential Fed dovishness under Warsh — is the most bullish setup for BTC since October 2025. But we are still 40% below the all-time high of $126K. A sustained break above $78K–$80K would confirm the trend. Until then, treat this as a recovery within a broader range.

Learn to Trade Macro-Driven Weeks Like a Pro

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— See you next Saturday. Trade safe.

About the Author: Avneesh Asija is the founder of TradeSteady, a crypto and stock market trading education institute with centres in Delhi, Ghaziabad, and Bengaluru. A practising trader specialising in BTC options and derivatives on Delta Exchange, Avneesh has mentored 100+ students through TradeSteady’s live, hybrid format courses. The Weekly Outlook is published every Saturday.