Crypto Weekly Outlook (Dec 22-28, 2025): The $23 Billion Bitcoin Expiry & Year-End Volatility

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Is the "Santa Claus Rally" Coming, or Is It a Trap?

Welcome to the final full trading week of 2025! As we head into the holiday season, you might expect the markets to quiet down—but the data suggests otherwise. The week of December 22nd to 28th is shaping up to be a volatility powder keg for the crypto market.

From a historic Bitcoin options expiry to critical US economic data and significant token unlocks, here is everything you need to watch this week.

Bitcoin balancing on a tightrope during a stormy Christmas week, symbolizing the volatility of the $23 billion options expiry in December 2025.

1. The Main Event: The $23 Billion Bitcoin Options Expiry (Dec 26)

Mark your calendars for Friday, December 26th. The crypto market is bracing for the largest options expiry of the year, with approximately $23 billion in Bitcoin contracts set to settle on Deribit.

Why it matters: Options expiries of this magnitude often act as a magnet for price action. As traders and institutions hedge their positions, we typically see increased volatility leading up to the expiry date.
The "Max Pain" Scenario: Positioning data shows a divide. While there are bullish calls at the $100,000 and $120,000 strike prices, there is also a heavy buildup of bearish put options around $85,000.
What to expect: Watch for "weird" price action early in the week—sharp wicks, fakeouts, and choppy ranges as big players defend their strike levels. Once the expiry settles on Friday, the market often "resets," potentially paving the way for a clearer trend heading into 2026.

2. Macro Movers: US GDP & Durable Goods (Dec 23)

While the stock market will see a holiday-shortened week (closing early Dec 24 and closed Dec 25), critical economic data drops on Tuesday, December 23rd.

US GDP Growth Rate (Q3 Final Estimate): Forecasts sit around 3.2%. A stronger-than-expected number could boost the dollar (DXY), potentially putting short-term pressure on crypto assets.
Durable Goods Orders: Expected to rise. Positive manufacturing data signals a robust economy, which can sometimes dampen the "recession hedge" narrative for Bitcoin but is generally good for risk assets.
Central Bank Minutes: Watch for meeting minutes from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Any hawkish surprises here could rattle global liquidity, impacting crypto.

3. Crypto Weekly Outlook: Token Unlocks: Supply Shock Incoming

Several projects are releasing locked tokens into circulation this week. These "unlocks" can create selling pressure as early investors or teams liquidate portions of their holdings.

Plasma (XPL) - Dec 28: Approximately 88.89 million tokens are set to unlock. Holders should be cautious of potential price dips around this date.
Sign (SIGN) - Dec 28: A massive unlock of 96.67 million tokens is scheduled. If you hold SIGN, monitor liquidity and volume closely.
Sui (SUI) & Aster (ASTER): Keep an eye on these ecosystems as they continue their periodic unlock schedules, which have been significant throughout December.

4. Market Sentiment: The "Santa Claus Rally"

Crypto Weekly Outlook: Historically, the "Santa Claus Rally" refers to the tendency for markets to rise during the last five trading days of December and the first two of January. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged a 1.3% gain during this period.

The Crypto Correlation: With Bitcoin and crypto increasingly correlated with traditional markets (especially tech stocks like Nvidia and Oracle), a strong finish for the S&P 500 often spills over into digital assets.
The Caveat: Low liquidity during the holidays means smaller trades can move the price more drastically. Be careful of "thin" order books.

The Verdict

This is not a week to set-and-forget your trades. The combination of a massive options expiry and holiday liquidity creates a perfect storm for volatility.

Bull Case: We survive the Dec 26 expiry without breaking key support levels ($85k for BTC), and the "Santa Rally" kicks in for a strong yearly close.
Bear Case: Macro data comes in too hot, or the options expiry drags prices down to "max pain" levels, triggering cascading liquidations.

TradeSteady Tip: If you are trading this week, consider reducing your leverage. The market noise will be loud. Focus on the levels, not the hype.

Why choose TradeSteady? Don't just gamble on volatility; learn to master it. Whether it's Stocks, Options, or Crypto, we provide the regulatory-compliant, skill-based foundation you need to survive and thrive.